606. How to Predict the Presidency

Are betting markets more accurate than polls? What kind of chaos would a second Trump term bring? And is U.S. democracy really in danger, or just “sputtering on”? (Part two of a two-part series.)

• SOURCES:
  • Eric Posner, professor of law at the University of Chicago Law School.
  • Koleman Strumpf, professor of economics at Wake Forest University.

• RESOURCES:
  • "A Trump Dictatorship Won’t Happen," by Eric Posner (Project Syndicate, 2023).
  • The Demagogue's Playbook: The Battle for American Democracy from the Founders to Trump, by Eric Posner (2020).
  • "The Long History of Political Betting Markets: An International Perspective," by Paul W. Rhode and Koleman Strumpf (The Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Gambling, 2013).
  • "Manipulating Political Stock Markets: A Field Experiment and a Century of Observational Data," by Paul W. Rhode and Koleman S. Strumpf (Working Paper, 2007).
  • "Historical Presidential Betting Markets," by Paul W. Rhode and Koleman S. Strumpf (Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2004).

• EXTRAS:
  • "Has the U.S. Presidency Become a Dictatorship? (Update)," by Freakonomics Radio (2024).
  • “Does the President Matter as Much as You Think?” by Freakonomics Radio (2020).
  • "How Much Does the President Really Matter?" by Freakonomics Radio (2010).