The State of the Economy for January 2026

Consumer confidence has plummeted. What does it mean for the economy? 

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® fell sharply in January, from 94.2 in December to 84.5. Consumers' assessment of both current business and labor market conditions, and their short-term outlook of the same, fell by 9.9 and 9.5 points, respectively, to 65.1, well below the threshold of 80 that typically signals a recession ahead. 

Write-in responses showed a continuation in references to prices and inflation, oil and gas prices, and food and grocery prices. Mentions of tariffs and trade, politics, and the labor market also rose in January.