319: Will the 2026 Midterm Elections Crash the Stock Market?
Will the 2026 midterm elections cause a stock market crash? And should you sell your investments before Election Day?
Election years bring strong opinions, alarming headlines, and plenty of predictions about what will happen to the stock market. But history tells a more complicated story.
In this episode, Hilary Hendershott, founder of Hendershott Wealth Management, examines historical market returns under Republican and Democratic administrations, what the data says about midterm election years, and why predicting an election outcome doesn't necessarily help you predict the market.
You'll learn why:
- Stock markets have historically delivered positive returns under both political parties.
- Midterm election averages aren't reliable predictions of future performance.
- Stock prices already reflect investors' expectations about political outcomes.
- Making investment decisions based on election fears can lead to missed opportunities, unnecessary trading costs, and tax consequences.
Your vote reflects the future you want for the country. Your investment portfolio should support the future you want for yourself and your family.
Ready for thoughtful investment and tax planning?
Schedule a complimentary conversation with Hendershott Wealth Management: hendershottwealth.com/ytinvesting
Read the full transcript: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-E0DPFxwELBE7jhMTKzfUIZ_usJKPdp0/view?usp=sharing
Subscribe for more conversations about investing, tax-efficient wealth management, and building lasting financial security.Dimensional Fund Advisors US Elections and Markets: A Look at History: https://www.dimensional.com/us-en/insights/us-elections-and-markets-a-look-at-history
Key Takeaways
- 00:53 Will the Midterms Crash the Market?
- 01:45 Republicans vs. Democrats: Market History
- 03:15 What Midterm Election Returns Show
- 04:44 Why Historical Patterns Can Mislead
- 05:19 How Markets Price Election Outcomes
- 06:40 The Risks of Election-Based Investing
- 07:38 Why Selling Out of Fear Can Backfire
Show NotesTo get access to the full show notes, including all the resources mentioned, visit: https://hendershottwealth.com/podcast/2026-midterm-elections-stock-market
Hendershott Wealth Management, LLC and Love, your Money do not make specific investment recommendations on Love, your Money or in any public media. Any specific mentions of funds or investments are strictly for illustrative purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice or acted upon by individual investors. The opinions expressed in this episode are those of Hilary Hendershott, CFP®, MBA.
