Bryan Taylor: The Four Forces That Drive Every Market (Investing in America Series) #635

Today’s guest is Bryan Taylor, founder and chief economist of Finaeon, which has the most comprehensive database of historical financial market data in the world. He's just published Five Financial Eras: How Financial Markets Transformed the World. In today’s episode, Bryan explains his TWIG framework of trade, war, inflation, and government, and how their combination drives returns across centuries of market history. He challenges the belief in a fixed equity risk premium and revisits seven decades of negative real bond returns. To close, Bryan explains why the post-1981 playbook no longer applies. (0:00) Starts (1:25) Sponsor: Ivy Invest (2:37) Bryan Taylor explains the TWIG framework (10:20) There is no single equity risk premium (21:18) Government debt, market capitalization, and global market position (26:17) The impact of technology revolutions on markets (28:30) Historical changes in investment trends (38:22) Cultural shifts in investing (47:36) Evolution of stock market indices and future projects (52:03) Currency discussion ----- Sponsor: ⁠⁠Ivy Invest⁠ ⁠- To learn more about Ivy Invest's SEC-registered endowment-style fund, view the prospectus, and learn how to invest, visit⁠ ⁠ivyinvest.co/fund⁠ ----- Follow Meb on⁠ X⁠,⁠ LinkedIn⁠ and⁠ YouTube⁠ For detailed show notes, click ⁠here⁠ To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our ⁠mailing list⁠ or visit us at⁠ cambriainvestments.com⁠ ----- Follow The Idea Farm: ⁠X⁠ | ⁠LinkedIn⁠ | ⁠Instagram⁠ | ⁠TikTok⁠ ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at [email protected] ----- Past guests include ⁠Ed Thorp⁠, ⁠Richard Thaler⁠, ⁠Jeremy Grantham⁠, ⁠Joel Greenblatt⁠, ⁠Campbell Harvey⁠, ⁠Ivy Zelman⁠, ⁠Kathryn Kaminski⁠, ⁠Jason Calacanis⁠, ⁠Whitney Baker,⁠ ⁠Aswath Damodaran⁠, ⁠Howard Marks⁠, ⁠Tom Barton⁠, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out ⁠here⁠! -----Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices