LDS Church: Growing or Shrinking? What the Data Reveals !

Is Mormonism growing, shrinking, or somewhere in between? And what do the actual numbers tell us about people joining, leaving, and remaining in the LDS Church? In this episode of Mormon Discussion Podcast, Bill Reel sits down with Alex Bass, researcher behind Mormon Metrics and Bass Empirical, to take a closer look at the data surrounding Mormon membership, retention, conversion, and religious disaffiliation. Alex brings a background in political science, a master’s degree in Data Science, and professional experience in polling and survey research. Together, we explore what the research actually demonstrates—and where believers, critics, and even researchers may be drawing conclusions that go beyond the evidence. Topics include: Is the LDS Church actually growing or shrinking? How many people are joining Mormonism versus leaving? Why strong retention rates can coexist with more people leaving than joining. The difference between official Church membership, religious identity, and active participation. What longitudinal surveys reveal about changing religious beliefs and affiliations. Why U.S. membership trends may differ significantly from international trends. How reliable are the statistics, and what are the limitations of the available research? What both Mormon apologists and critics get wrong when interpreting Church growth statistics. Whether you’re a believing Latter-day Saint, a former Mormon, or simply interested in the changing landscape of American religion, this conversation offers an evidence-based examination of one of Mormonism’s most important questions: What do the numbers really tell us about the future of the LDS Church?

RESOURCES Mormon Metrics: https://mormonmetrics.com/ Alex Bass’s October 9 research on joining and leaving Mormonism: https://mormonmetrics.com/p/are-more-people-joining-or-leaving Alex Bass’s October 29th “Latter-day Saints Have More Leavers Over Time”: https://mormonmetrics.com/p/29499256-d081-48f8-8842-0a21c2eff692

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