15 Aug 2026 07:24
Paul Craven on Living With Uncertainty
What happens when someone who spends his life thinking about risk, decision-making and human behaviour is confronted with an uncertainty he simply can’t control?Episode summaryMy guest is Paul Craven, a behavioural scientist, former investment professional, magician and keynote speaker, and one of my favourite people to talk to. When we sat down to record this episode, I noticed that Paul’s voice sounded different.His explanation — that he had recently been diagnosed with oral cancer — took our conversation in an unexpected and deeply personal direction.We explore what his experience has taught him about uncertainty, why he deliberately chose not to Google his diagnosis, and the difference between having information and having useful information.From there, we explore luck and skill, decision and gratitude journals, relationships versus transactions, the dangers of binary thinking, and why sometimes the best thing you can do when you’re in a bad mood is go for a walk in the rain. It’s a conversation about behavioural science, but also about perspective, paying attention and what we discover about ourselves when life doesn’t go according to plan.Key themes
- Living with uncertainty and the psychological value of having a plan
- Why more information isn’t always better information
- AI, search engines and our desire for certainty
- Nuance versus binary thinking
- Luck, skill and decision journals
- Gratitude and paying attention to what matters
- Relationships versus transactions
- Storytelling, lived experience and different ways of seeing the world
- Chameleon Thinking and the value of changing perspective
- Paul Craven — speaker profile and booking enquiries
- Paul Craven’s website
- Iain McGilchrist
- Martin Shaw
- Mark Vernon
