The Midterm Special | Weekly Recap

Welcome to Impact Theory. In this midterm special, the team breaks down the bluenami: an election night that went past every forecast as Democrats took control of both chambers of Congress, flipping seven Senate seats from Maine to Texas and heading toward what Tom calls their biggest House majority since 1993. Pointing to exit polls that showed 62% of voters disapproving of President Trump, with most blaming his policies for the economy and gas prices and the Iran war weighing heavily on the vote, Tom argues the results were a rejection of Republicans more than an embrace of Democrats. He walks through what comes next: two years of gridlock, vetoes, and investigations, a likely impeachment push without the votes to convict, and a 2028 campaign that has effectively already begun, while the team debates how far left the new wave really is. The conversation then turns to markets, from Bitcoin’s jump to the historical pattern of stocks rising in the year after a midterm. Tom says history favors the bulls, but argues AI is a big enough wild card that this cycle may not follow the script, and makes the case that a divided Washington that freezes new spending could steady Treasuries and reward the market. The team also looks at what the results mean for data centers and AI policy, including ballot measures that would have been tougher on AI but didn’t pass, and California’s billionaire tax heading toward defeat. Asked whether he feels more or less optimistic, Tom says neither: he saw the backlash coming after unfulfilled promises, but he’s still worried about America drifting toward a European-style economic model.

Note: This episode contains commentary and opinion, including predictions about markets, Congress, and the 2028 race. Results and ballot-measure outcomes discussed reflect counts at the time of recording; several races, including the Senate contests in Alaska and Mississippi, were still uncalled, and final tallies may change.

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