Warm-Up
\n- Follow Up - I am the House! - 10YR shot above 5% on Monday
\n- Follow Up 2 - Straight of Hormuz - NO Boats passing (can we please stick to the facts?)
\n- CPI numbers - HOT - Markets think hit a top
\n- Let's talk end of the works - Cyberdyne IRL

FED HIKE IS BACK
\n- Fed meets Tuesday-Wednesday, with a 25 bp hike to 3.75%-4.00% now the dominant expectation.
\n- 85% of economists surveyed expect a hike; futures moved to roughly 90% odds after the latest inflation data.
\n- August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year; core rose 0.3% for the month and 2.4% annually.
\n- Markets are increasingly pricing additional tightening beyond September rather than this being a one-and-done move.

AND -> THE 5% TREASURY IS BACK
\n- The 10-year Treasury yield briefly crossed 5% Monday for the first time since 2023.
\n- Higher oil prices, hotter inflation, heavy bond supply and expectations for more Fed tightening are all pushing yields higher.
\n- The move raises the hurdle rate for stocks while feeding directly into mortgages, corporate borrowing and other credit.
\n- Bonds are becoming meaningful competition for equities again at a time when stock valuations remain elevated.

SLOW DOWN THE AI
\n- Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei called for deliberately slowing frontier-model advancement to create more time for safety controls.
\n- Sam Altman and Elon Musk publicly backed the push for more caution; Microsoft separately released a draft AI code requiring models to remain under human control.
\n- Microsoft says its models must accept shutdowns and corrections ","associatedMedia":{"@type":"MediaObject","contentUrl":"https://track.pdcstly.com/episod/38586609"},"partOfSeries":{"@type":"PodcastSeries","name":"DHUnplugged Podcast","url":"https://pdcstly.com/en/podcast/dhu-nplugged-podcast/6436"}},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"https://pdcstly.com/en/usa","name":"United States"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"https://pdcstly.com/en/usa/investing/203","name":"Investing"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"item":{"@id":"https://pdcstly.com/en/podcast/dhu-nplugged-podcast/6436","name":"DHUnplugged Podcast","image":"https://image.pdcstly.com/podcast/6436/512.jpg"}}]}]}

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DHUnplugged Podcast

16 Sep 2026 02:25

DHunplugged #818: Cyberdyne IRL

Investing

It’s the end of the world and we know it…

CPI numbers – HOT – Markets think hit a top – or just options Friday?

Sell Rosh Hashana and Buy Yom Kippur?

Plenty of AI

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

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Warm-Up - Follow Up - I am the House! - 10YR shot above 5% on Monday - Follow Up 2 - Straight of Hormuz - NO Boats passing (can we please stick to the facts?) - CPI numbers - HOT - Markets think hit a top - Let's talk end of the works - Cyberdyne IRL

Markets - 100% Probability of a rate hike this week - Sell Rosh Hashana, Buy Yom Kippur - HACK ETF - Cybersecurity name up 49% YTD

DHU MAILING LIST! - Go to DHUnplugged.com

FED HIKE IS BACK - Fed meets Tuesday-Wednesday, with a 25 bp hike to 3.75%-4.00% now the dominant expectation. - 85% of economists surveyed expect a hike; futures moved to roughly 90% odds after the latest inflation data. - August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year; core rose 0.3% for the month and 2.4% annually. - Markets are increasingly pricing additional tightening beyond September rather than this being a one-and-done move.

AND -> THE 5% TREASURY IS BACK - The 10-year Treasury yield briefly crossed 5% Monday for the first time since 2023. - Higher oil prices, hotter inflation, heavy bond supply and expectations for more Fed tightening are all pushing yields higher. - The move raises the hurdle rate for stocks while feeding directly into mortgages, corporate borrowing and other credit. - Bonds are becoming meaningful competition for equities again at a time when stock valuations remain elevated.

SLOW DOWN THE AI - Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei called for deliberately slowing frontier-model advancement to create more time for safety controls. - Sam Altman and Elon Musk publicly backed the push for more caution; Microsoft separately released a draft AI code requiring models to remain under human control. - Microsoft says its models must accept shutdowns and corrections

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