DHUnplugged #725: Minsky Moments

Yields important again - rising and worrisome. Hedge Fund titans getting nervous - talking bout a Minsky Moment. End of month - October is about to be in the books. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? OHHH - the new shirt design is coming along... SHHHHH- Leaking some of my own news... eNVESTOLOGY moving to $25,000 minimum in 2025. Currently at $10,000 so if you want to get in to that investment management program with us for the current minimum - now is the time. Warm-Up - Yields important again - all of a sudden - Hedge Fund titans getting nervous - talking bout a Minsky Moment - End of month - October is about to be in the books Markets - Earnings season - Tech is about to bombard us - Gold near highs as China and India buying - Election Direction - putting money where mouth is... - Consumers are happier - UMICH - NAZ 100 - ATH? Yields - On the Move Yields On The Move Auto Divergence - GM puts out some good numbers for recent quarter. -- GM now expects full-year adjusted EBIT of between $14 billion and $15 billion, or $10 and $10.50 a share, up from between $13 billion and $15 billion, or $9.50 and $10.50. - This marks the third time this year that GM has updated its guidance after beating Wall Street’s top- and bottom-line expectations, led by the automaker’s North American operations. - Ford put out okay numbers, nothing exciting at this point - stock stuck in sideways action - Big differential with stock performance over past year GM/FORD YTD GM/Ford Longer New Threshold for Capital Gains - Starting in 2025, single filers will qualify for the 0% long-term capital gains rate with taxable income of $48,350 or less and married couples filing jointly are eligible with $96,700 or less. - Here is an idea - for low basis stock - possibly gift to non-dependents that have low income and they can sell at lower capital gains rate --- Cannot do for dependents as their unearned income above $1,300 is the threshold. Consumer Sentiment - October Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Final 70.5 vs. 68.9 Briefing.com consensus; October prelim was 68.9 - Markets reacted positively last Friday on this news. --- Trivia: The University of Michigan (UMich) stopped releasing early versions of its Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) in 2013 as part of an agreement with the New York Attorney General's office. The university had previously received around $1 million a year from Thomson Reuters for this information. Hedge fund big boys - Getting nervous - Paul Tudor Jones - The founder and chief investment officer of Tudor Investment said he was worried that government spending could cause a big sell-off in the bond market, spiking interest rates higher. - Debt unsustainable and people just overlooking it - "Will we have a Minsky moment where all of a sudden there’s a point of recognition that what they’re talking about is fiscally impossible, financially impossible?” Jones said." - Commented how both candidates are spenders so that is not good - however, hard pressed to think that many of their spending promises will actually go through. Minsky Moment Defined - A Minsky moment is a sudden, catastrophic collapse of asset prices after a period of growth and stability. It's named after American economist Hyman Minsky (1911 to 1996), who believed that markets are inherently unstable and long periods of good markets eventually end in larger crises. - A Minsky moment occurs when excessive debt accumulation becomes unsustainable. Borrowers can no longer meet their debt obligations using their income, leading to a sudden decline in asset prices and a financial crisis. Housing Market