GM105: The Billion-Barrel Shock Has Not Arrived Yet ft. Adam Rozencwajg

More than a billion barrels of expected oil supply have been removed from the market. Yet prices suggest the danger has passed. Adam Rozencwajg joins Cem Karsan and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to explain why that conclusion may be dangerously premature. The missing barrels have not disappeared from the equation. Their impact is still moving through tankers, refineries and inventories, hidden by reporting delays and China’s strategic response. From the limits of petroleum reserves to falling stockpiles, gold’s correction and the energy required to power AI, this episode examines a market caught between what prices are saying and what the physical system may soon reveal.

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Why commodity super cycles are driven by capital investment, not geopolitics

09:30 - The impact of Middle East supply disruptions on global oil markets

15:38 - Oil inventories, strategic reserves and why the data may be misleading

21:57 - China's energy strategy and its growing influence on global markets

31:23 - Why energy markets have not reacted as many investors expected

37:13 - China's long term energy transition and global demand implications

43:59 - Why oil prices have fallen despite tightening fundamentals

48:12 - The outlook for oil markets over the coming months

58:25 - Gold, investor positioning and what could trigger the next rally

01:02:59 - Strategic government investment and the future of critical commodities

01:09:22 - Why energy remains the biggest opportunity in the