Predicting Future Pathways: Understanding Climate Scenarios

How do scientists predict what the climate could look like decades, or even centuries, from now? In this episode of People, Places, Planet, host Natalie Triana sits down with John Doherty, Science and Policy Analyst at ELI, to unpack emissions scenarios: what they are, how they inform climate models, and why they matter for decision-making and planning. 

From Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to the latest generation of emissions scenarios, the conversation explores how scientists model possible climate futures based on different assumptions about energy use, population, economic growth, and other factors. We also discuss why these scenarios evolve over time, what the latest updates reveal about potential future warming, and how these projections inform climate policy. If you’ve ever wondered what lies behind projections of global warming or sea-level rise, this episode breaks down the science and assumptions that help inform our view of the planet’s future. 

To learn more, explore these resources: 

• What New Emissions Data Means for Climate 
• Explainer: The CMIP7 emissions scenarios – and how they explore future climate change 
• The Worst Case Is Still on the Table 

Timestamps: 

02:30 – What Are Emissions Scenarios? 

06:55 – How Scientists Use Emissions Scenarios 

09:10 – Why Emissions Scenarios Change Over Time 

10:15 – What’s New in the Revised Scenarios? 

13:00 – What the New Scenarios Mean for Climate Projections 

15:53 – Climate Science, Public Criticism, and Misrepresentation