TWIG #403: The Market Only Grew 2%, Friendslop Hits the PC Charts and China Drafts Off GTA VI

Strip out inflation and the games market has barely grown in a decade.

This week we dig into Newzoo's latest numbers and what they say about where growth comes from: mature Western markets, existing players and five giant companies taking almost all of it. Then we look at how cheap social games like Big Walk and How to Fish cracked the top 10 PC revenue chart, what Naughty Dog's new Last of Us tease means, and why Chinese developers are rushing GTA-style mobile games out ahead of GTA VI.

Topics Covered:

• Mark Pincus and the $400M Supercell deal that almost happened
• Why 2021 is the wrong benchmark for the market
• Real growth after inflation is closer to 2% a year
• Growth comes from mature markets and existing players
• China's advantage at home and abroad
• CPIs keep climbing while mobile installs fall
• Five companies drove almost all of 2025's growth
• Big publishers retreat to their core franchises
• Friendslop games break into the PC top 10
• Naughty Dog confirms more Last of Us
• Chinese GTA-style games launch ahead of GTA VI
• Why nobody can compete with GTA head on

CHAPTERS:

00:00 Intro01:01 Ethan Returns Industry Layoffs01:34 Upcoming Events and Newsletter03:15 Mark Pincus Interview Scoop09:45 Newzoo Outlook Beyond COVID11:37 Growth From Mature Markets15:58 Inflation and Real Growth Math23:28 Mobile Revenue vs Installs CPI Surge27:03 Growth Concentrated in Five Giants29:49 Publishers Retreat to Core Franchises31:04 PC Market Reality Check32:53 Friend Slop Breakouts47:43 Last of Us Future Talk01:00:54 Why GTA Has No Rivals