11-5-26 Is the Bond Market Warning of a Stock Crash?

Stocks are rallying following the 2026 midterm elections, but could the bond market be signaling trouble ahead? On the November 5, 2026, edition of The Real Investment Show, Lance Roberts and Michael Lebowitz examine how election results, strong corporate earnings, stock buybacks, and institutional buying could influence the stock market's year-end outlook. They also explore how AI data center spending, oil prices, inflation, and Federal Reserve policy could affect Treasury yields and economic growth. Meanwhile, emerging stress in lower-rated corporate bonds and tightening liquidity conditions raise concerns about potential risks beneath the market's surface. Could declining inflation push interest rates lower and support stocks, or are widening credit spreads providing an early warning of financial instability? Discover what investors should watch as markets navigate political gridlock, shifting interest rates, and the possibility of a year-end rally. Key topics include: 0:00 - INTRO 1:07 - Stellar Earnings Season - Buybacks to Bring Back Liquidity 1:55 - Post-election Focus Now 5:14 - Markets Rally After Election 7:08 - Heat Map & Data Center Construction Concerns 10:53 - Post-election Promises vs Reality: What the markets are trying to figure out 15:05 - What do Election Results Mean for the Bond Market? 15:26 - Why Have Bond Yields Risen so Much? (Inflation) 17:46 - The Potential for Slowing Data Center Buildouts 18:49 - GDP Growth Component Analysis 19:52 - Bond Market is Bullish on Buildouts, Iran War Ending 21:30 - What the Election Won't Do (Policy Can't Fix the Housing Market) 23:32 - The Government Supports UN-Affordability in Housing 27:03 - "Lance the Libertarian" 31:10 - Three Things to Pay Attention To (Midterms Don't Set Bond Yields - chart) 34:36 - Credit Spreads: Calm On The Surface, Concern At The Bottom (Chart) 37:48 - Our Economy Runs on Credit: Cost of Money 40:27 - Triple-C Credit Spreads (chart) 44:20 - The Message: There is Concern in Credit Spreads 44:56 - SimpleVisor Liquidity Gauges (chart) ==== Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Check out our new & improved version of SimpleVisor: https://simplevisor.ai/ ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/n0hQ3Y3NnNA -------- Watch our previous show, "Election Over: What's Next for Stocks?" https://youtube.com/live/-n06FP47n2I ------- Watch Today's "Before the Bell" report, "Election Rally Hits a Wall," https://youtu.be/Kx5Ee-l2-1A ------- * REGISTER for our next in-person event, "Retirement Blueprint: 12 Steps to a Financially Savvy & Secure Retirement," Saturday, November 7: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/events/ ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Credit Spreads: Calm On The Surface, Concern At The Bottom" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/credit-spreads-calm-on-the-surface-concern-at-the-bottom/ "Oracle Sells Cheap Stock As Its Debt Window Narrows" hhttps://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/oracle-sells-cheap-stock-as-its-debt-window-narrows/ -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #SP500 #PostElectionRally #MarketAnalysis #StockMarketOutlook #BondMarket #CreditSpreads #MarketRisk #Investing