DHUnplugged #762: What a Week!

GDP, Earnings and FOMC meeting Cover Art - Best Ever - Not... New term - QUISHING I gotchooo and Say less PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter INTERACTIVE BROKERS Warm-Up - Cover Art - Best Ever - Not... - New term - QUISHING - I gotchooo and Say less Markets - What a Week! - GDP, Earnings and FOMC meeting - MORE ATHs! - Earnings Season Update - Homes - Capital Gains? Cover Art - Can we take a close look at what was AI generated this week? - At least TWO glaring issues ... China - another delay/pause? - President Trump tells reporters on Air Force One that he could meet with Chinese President Xi by the end of the year (???) EU Deal - Framework of the deal seems done - 15% across the board tariff on EU goods into the US (a couple of exceptions) - Prices for Olive Oil from your favorite region is going up - Some new benefits for US cars into Europe - - If this is all so good for say US car manufactures, why aren't Ford and GM stocks doing anything? Earnings this week of note: - Microsoft (MSFT): Expected to report on July 30, 2025 - Meta Platforms (META): Scheduled to report on July 30, 2025 - Amazon (AMZN): Scheduled to report on July 31, 2025 - Apple (AAPL): Scheduled to report on July 31, 2025 --- Those 4 companies are 20% of the S&P weighting Earnings Season Update - Overall, 34% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported actual results for Q2 2025 to date. Of these companies, 80% have reported actual EPS above estimates, which is above the 5-year average of 78% and above the 10-year average of 75%. - If 80% is the final number for the quarter, it will mark the largest percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting a positive EPS surprise for a quarter since Q3 2023 (81%). - In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 6.1% above estimates, which is below the 5-year average of 9.1% and below the 10-year average of 6.9%. Real Estate - Existing home sales fell 2.7% in June but were unchanged from June 2024. - According to the latest report from the National Association of Realtors®, record-high home prices, elevated mortgage rates, and a moderate supply are discouraging some potential home buyers, particularly first-time home purchasers. - The median existing-home sale price in June was $435,300, up from the May price of $423,700, and higher than the June 2024 price of $426,900 - Inventory ticked up from a 4.6-month supply in May to 4.7 months in June - Sales of single-family existing homes dipped 3.0% last month. The median single-family existing home price was $441,500 in June, compared to $428,800 in May and $432,900 in June 2024. Quishing - QR codes used to trick people into visiting malicious websites or unknowingly share private information, a scam that has become known as “quishing.” - The increasing prevalence of QR code scams prompted a warning from the Federal Trade Commission earlier this year about unwanted or unexpected packages showing up with a QR code that when scanned “could take you to a phishing website that steals your personal information, like credit card numbers or usernames and passwords. It could also download malware onto your phone and give hackers access to your device.” - There is work being doen to develop a “smart” QR code called a SDMQR (Self-Authenticating Dual-Modulated QR) that has built-in security to prevent scams. But first, he needs buy-in from Google and Microsoft, the companies that build the cameras and control the camera infrastructure. Thoughts? - During a pivotal push by Ukraine to retake territory from Russia in late September 2022, Elon Musk gave an order that disrupted the counteroffensive and dented Kyiv’s trust ...