Neuberger's Blazek: Disinflation and earnings durability key to market's next rise

Jeff Blazek, co-chief investment officer for multi-asset strategies at Neuberger, takes a contrarian view of sticky inflation in The Big Interview, saying that it's starting to turn and ease naturally, meaning the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates just once more, and that by early 2027 the energy shock will be rolling back and investors will be less concerned with rising capital costs and economic stability. Those positives, however, won't diminish volatility, making for a bumpy but positive ride next year, with earnings durability being key to determining the companies likely to lead the market into the next phase of the A.I. evolution. Blazek says he expects the economy to avoid recession and the market to skirt a bear market until 2028.

That sentiment — that a bear market isn't likely until 2028 — is shared by D.R. Barton Jr., director of market research for the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, though he draws that conclusion through technical analysis, as opposed to Blazek's fundamentals. Barton says that the market is "in the strongest part of the cycle" around midterm elections, noting that there has never been a time going back to 1950 that the stock market wasn't up six and 12 months later. He does worry that current sector rotation could disrupt the cycle, but said he sees mostly good signs that the market can keep moving sharply forward amid heightened volatility.

In The Book Interview, Daniel Altman discusses "The Best Decisions You'll Ever Make: An Economist's Guide to Saving Time, Making Money, and Living Well," which was released today and which explores how economics is at the heart of everyday purchases and more, but is largely ignored by the people making those decisions. By factoring economic in, Altman says consumers can make objectively better decisions and raise their happiness level.