3 Jun 2026 04:00
S8: Ep: 136 - How the National Hurricane Center Forecast Hurricanes - Jamie Rhome
How the National Hurricane Center Forecasts Hurricanes — Jamie Rhome
When a hurricane threatens, people want answers: Where will it go? How strong will it become? How much time is left to prepare? Behind every official forecast is a complex process involving satellite observations, aircraft data, computer guidance, emerging artificial intelligence tools and expert analysis.
In this episode of HURRICANE CENTER, the hosts speak with Jamie Rhome, Deputy Director of NOAA’s National Hurricane Center, about how hurricane forecasting and risk communication continue to evolve. The discussion explores improved observations and modeling, artificial intelligence guidance, rapid intensification, storm-surge forecasting and the importance of helping people understand the full range of hazards before a storm arrives.
Rhome also addresses one of the biggest communication challenges in hurricane preparedness: the public often focuses on a single category number or the center line of the forecast cone, while the greatest local risk may come from storm surge, flooding, destructive winds, extended power loss or waiting too long to act.
In This Episode, You Will Learn
- How the National Hurricane Center evaluates new forecasting tools and artificial intelligence guidance.
- Why better observations and modeling are important for forecasting hurricane structure and rapid intensification.
- How storm-surge forecasting is improving for coastal communities.
- What the forecast cone communicates — and what it does not.
- Why a storm category alone does not define local danger.
- How waiting for a more favorable forecast can reduce the time available to prepare.
- Why official, trusted information matters when a tropical threat develops.
About the Guest
Jamie Rhome is Deputy Director of NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami. He helps guide the center’s long-term strategy, annual planning and operational execution. His NHC career has included work as a surface analyst, marine forecaster, hurricane specialist and storm-surge specialist.
Key Listener Takeaway
A hurricane forecast is not just about the projected path of the storm’s center. It is about understanding the hazards that may affect your location — including storm surge, flooding, wind, power outages and the shrinking window to make safe decisions. When a storm threatens, focus on official forecasts and local impacts rather than waiting for a forecast that feels less threatening.
About HURRICANE CENTER
HURRICANE CENTER takes listeners inside the science, decisions and real-world impacts of tropical storms and hurricanes. Featuring conversations with forecasters, researchers, emergency managers and resilience experts, the podcast helps communities better understand hurricane risk and prepare before, during and after landfall.
A production of the National Tropical Weather Conference.
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Suggest a topic or ask a question: [email protected] Learn more about the conference: HurricaneCenterLive.com
Suggest a topic or ask a question: [email protected] our conference site: www.hurricanecenterlive.comThanks for listening and please share with your friends and co-workers.
