The AI Reckoning: When a Trillion-Dollar Bet Meets Rising Rates

The AI story has flipped from a technology story to a credit story, and that changes everything. Anthropic’s bonds have been downgraded to junk, Elon Musk says credit markets are closing to anything with “AI” attached, and half a trillion dollars was wiped off Alphabet in a single day. We dig into the uncomfortable data: outside the Magnificent Seven, AI has delivered almost zero productivity payoff to corporate America, revenue per worker is flat across the other 493 S&P companies. Then the real danger: if inflation forces the Fed to push rates from 4% to 6.5% to crush it, an overvalued AI market smashes straight into rising rates driven by a war in Iran. Plus why Christine Lagarde’s early exit from the ECB might have one eye on the French presidency.

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